Surfline Forecast - August 23rd

August 23 2011 | Posted in Forecast, 

BRIEF OVERVIEW:  We’ll start to see a gradual building trend through the afternoon on Wednesday, with very solid south-southwest swell for Thursday and Friday. An even larger and major south-southwest swell is due for Saturday, before fading Sunday. Building and breezy ESE/E trades prevail for the end of the week and into the weekend. 

WEDNESDAY 24th 
SWELL/SURF: Older S/SW swell mix in the morning in the 4’ range. Gradual building surf through the late afternoon/evening as the new SSW swell fills in.  
WIND/WEATHER: Light N/NE in the morning with variable flow through the afternoon. Breezy SE trades start to build around dark. Mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies, with possible passing showers developing after sundown.

THURSDAY 25th 
SWELL/SURF: Very solid SSW swell building into the 8-12’ range and strongest through the afternoon (double to triple overhead+++ with larger sets). 
WIND/WEATHER: Strong SE shifting ESE trades 18-20kts.  Partly cloudy skies with a chance of passing showers. 

FRIDAY 26th 
SWELL/SURF: Solid SSW swell continues, gradually easing through the day, with more 8-12’ surf. 
WIND/WEATHER: Strong ESE/E trades 15-20kts+. Partly cloudy skies, with a few passing showers possible. 

SATURDAY 27th 
SWELL/SURF: Major, long period SSW swell in the 12-15’+ range and even larger. This is dependent on storm behavior in the next couple days. Stay tuned. 
WIND/WEATHER: Breezy E trades 15-18kts+. Partly cloudy skies.

SUNDAY 28th
SWELL/SURF: SSW swell fading, but still very solid and in the 8-12’+ range.   
WIND/WEATHER: Breezy E trades 15-18kts+. Partly cloudy skies.

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY 

We have a good run of very strong south-southwest swells on track over the next several days, thanks to a pair of storms currently and recently near New Zealand, with even more lining up long term. 

The first of these swells will build in through the day on Thursday (even starting to show over the later afternoon Wednesday) and continue Friday in the 8-12’ range (solid double to triple overhead+ with larger sets). 

Wind for the Thur/Fri swell looks ok, but will be quite a bit stronger than what we’ve seen the last couple days as high pressure ridges in to the south of Tahiti for the middle to second half of the week. SE’erly trades start to pick up late Wednesday and then look strong out of the SE/ESE Thursday 18-20kts+, with 18-20kt E wind on Friday. We may see some brief, passing showers Thur as well. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. 

An even stronger south-southwest swell will then move in on Saturday, from a large and intense storm now moving out from under New Zealand. While the storm isn’t pointed ideally at Tahiti (the strongest wind and swell will pass by to the east), it makes up for that with its very large size and strong wind (seeing satellite confirmed wind of 50-55kts today). 

Long period, powerful swell in the 12-15’+ range looks likely for Saturday at this point, with a strong possibility of larger sets. Sunday will see fading, but still very strong surf. Easterly trades will ease slightly for the weekend, but are still pretty breezy around 15-18kts+ along with the occasional passing shower. 

Going further out, there is a chance for another strong SSW swell around Mon/Tue, the 29th-30th. At this point it looks a couple notches smaller than the Thur/Fri swell, but still very solidly overhead. We’ll have more details on this swell in the next few days. Stay tuned! 

Next Update: Wednesday afternoon, August 24th    

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