Surfline Forecast - August 18th

August 19 2011 | Posted in Forecast, 

BRIEF OVERVIEW: The first week+ of the contest waiting period will see plenty of swell. Medium size SW shifting SSW swell this weekend will be followed by slightly larger S swell for early next week. Long range charts indicate a very solid SSW swell will move in for Thursday/Friday the 25th-26th, with even more way out on the horizon.  

SATURDAY 20th 
SWELL/SURF: Medium size SW/SSW swell in the 5’ range (head high to a few feet overhead, some larger sets possible). 
WIND/WEATHER: Light easterlies, 5-10kts. 

SUNDAY 21st 
SWELL/SURF: SSW swell continues in the 5’ range (head high to a few feet overhead, some bigger sets in the late afternoon). 
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable ESE/E/SE wind 4-8kts.  

MONDAY 22nd 
SWELL/SURF: Building S swell in the 5-7’ range (overhead to double overhead+), although still storm dependent. Stay tuned. 
WIND/WEATHER: Light ESE wind in the morning 6-8kts, with potential increasing SE flow in the late afternoon and some showers developing. 

TUESDAY 23rd 
SWELL/SURF: S swell continues to possibly down a bit and in the 5-6’ range (overhead to double overhead). Stay tuned.   
WIND/WEATHER: Moderate ESE wind 10-15kts in the morning, easing for the afternoon. 

WEDNESDAY 24th 
SWELL/SURF: Possible mix of mid period SSW swell and longer period SW swell in the 5-7’+ range (overhead to double overhead+), although this will depend on storm formation/development in the next few days.  Stay tuned.  
WIND/WEATHER: Moderate ESE wind 10-12kts. 

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY 

There is no major change from our previous forecast and the overall storm and swell pattern looks very promising throughout the first week+ of the contest waiting period. We’ll see a series of medium size SSW shifting S swells through the weekend and into early next week. 

While the storm that set up the swell for the weekend has not been especially well organized, overhead waves will prevail Sat/Sun along with light easterly flow and excellent conditions. The same storm is getting a little better organized now and we will likely see a slightly larger south swell for early next week. We could see a brief increase in SE trades late Monday/early Tuesday, and some rain developing, but overall conditions look very manageable. 

The end of next week is looking even better with potential for a major SW to SSW swell on Thur/Fri the 25th-26th (and even potentially starting to build as early as Wednesday afternoon). We’ll be watching for a strong storm to develop to the southeast of New Zealand in a few days and, if it behaves as forecast, solid double to triple overhead+++ surf looks possible for the end of next week. It’s a bit far out to call wind and conditions with concrete accuracy, but there are no glaring red flags for bad conditions late next week at this point. 

Beyond that and going quite a ways out, long-range charts indicate another solid SW/SSW swell could move in for around the 28th, although it doesn’t look as big as the swell for the 25th-26th at this point. Stay tuned. 

Next Update: Friday afternoon, July 19th

 

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