Surfline Forecast - August 21st

August 21 2011 | Posted in Forecast, 

BRIEF OVERVIEW:  New, medium size south swell moves in on Monday before easing Tuesday. A major south-southwest swell remains on track for Thursday-Friday, with another very strong southwest swell looking likely for the weekend.  Wind will be very light though Tuesday, with building and breezy easterly trades for the end of the week. 

MONDAY 22nd 
SWELL/SURF: Building S swell in the 4-6’ range (head high+ up to double overhead). 
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable wind through the day, shifting between very weak offshore and very weak onshore. Mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. 

TUESDAY 23rd 
SWELL/SURF: S swell easing and in the 3-5’ range (head high to a couple/few feet overhead).   
WIND/WEATHER: Light/variable easterly with possible periods of very weak onshore flow. Mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies.

WEDNESDAY 24th 
SWELL/SURF: Older S swell in the morning. Possible building SW to SSW swell through the afternoon in the 6’++ range. Stay tuned.  
WIND/WEATHER: Building E/ESE wind 9-13kts. Mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies.

THURSDAY 25th 
SWELL/SURF: Very solid SSW swell building into the 8-12’ range through the afternoon (double to triple overhead+++ with larger sets). Stay tuned. 
WIND/WEATHER: Strong E trades 15-20kts.  Partly cloudy skies with a slight chance of passing showers, but they look very light and scattered if they do occur. 

FRIDAY 26th 
SWELL/SURF: Easing, but still very strong SSW swell in the 8-10’ range with larger sets to 12’ early. Stay tuned. 
WIND/WEATHER: Strong E trades 18-20kts+. Similar weather to Thursday. 

SWELL/WEATHER SUMMARY 

The surf will pulse back up a bit again on Monday as a new south swell fills in with 4-6’ swell (head high+ up to double overhead sets). Look for this south swell to then ease on Tuesday. 

For the next couple days we’ll see very light wind as weak pressure gradient continues. For Monday and Tuesday we’ll see light/variable wind through each day, vacillating between weakly offshore and weakly onshore, and generally staying in the 3-6kt range. Weather looks fine with mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. 

We remain on track for very strong surf from Thursday through Sunday, from a pair of storms near New Zealand; one developing right now and a second forecast to occur in a few days. 

The first of these swells will be out of the SSW, and we’re getting satellite confirmed wind of 35-45kts within the storm this morning. We’ll see swell initially build throughout the day on Wednesday, but Thursday will be strongest with solid 8-12’ swell (double to triple overhead+++ with the largest sets up to 4 times overhead). Easing, but still very solid surf will prevail on Friday. Stay tuned, this storm still has another day or two of life and we’ll be refining this forecast over those next couple days. 

Wind for the swell at the end of the week looks fine, but will be quite a bit stronger than what we’re seeing now as high pressure ridges in to the south of Tahiti for the middle to second half of the week. Easterly trades build Wednesday and then look strong for Thursday/Friday around 15-20kts. We may see some brief, passing showers Thur/Fri but they should be quick and with only light precipitation if they do occur. Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies. 

Going further out, it appears that another, very strong and long period southwest swell could move in for the weekend of the 27th-28th. If it behaves as currently forecast by charts/models, it would be even stronger than the Thur/Fri swell and with similar conditions. Stay tuned! 

Next Update: Monday afternoon, August 21st 

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